A working recommendation for 25 lakh saleable sq ft: prioritize established 2 BHK and core 3 BHK products, retain a small flex reserve, and release premium homes only after the missing evidence is obtained.
Use the existing velocity allocation for the initial feasibility and launch-design brief. Treat its four core products as the working plan and its premium option as uncommitted area.
This is a management judgment under incomplete evidence. It is not a calibrated optimum, an architectural sanction or approval to construct every modeled apartment.
Balanced remains an uncommitted alternative if buyer and premium-product validation supports it. The premium-realization scenario is unsuitable as the underwriting base today.
The simulator has not been changed. Its published default remains balanced. This report is a static 40% reference; edited live simulator inputs may produce different results. The recommended 5% flex reserve has no approved premium unit count or booked value.
The four rows use 95% of the development budget before rounding. The proposed rates are test inputs per RERA carpet sq ft; they are not current validated site quotations.
Developer planning carpet equals RERA carpet plus exclusive terrace. Every reference product explicitly assumes zero terrace; this is a preliminary design assumption. Exclusive balcony is separate and excluded from loading. Actual competitor saleable area is never replaced with this model.
| Product / assumed rate | RERA carpet | Modeled saleable | Budget share | Whole units | Agreement ticket | Gross agreement value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compact 2 BHK₹11,500 / RERA sq ft · assumption | 650+ 0 terrace assumed | 910 | 15% | 412 | ₹74.75 lakh | ₹307.97 cr |
| Regular 2 BHK₹13,000 / RERA sq ft · assumption | 750+ 0 terrace assumed | 1,050 | 40% | 952 | ₹97.50 lakh | ₹928.20 cr |
| Compact 3 BHK₹13,250 / RERA sq ft · assumption | 900+ 0 terrace assumed | 1,260 | 25% | 496 | ₹119.25 lakh | ₹591.48 cr |
| Regular 3 BHK₹13,500 / RERA sq ft · assumption | 1,050+ 0 terrace assumed | 1,470 | 15% | 255 | ₹141.75 lakh | ₹361.46 cr |
| Core total | 16,95,950Total RERA area; zero terrace assumed | 23,74,330Total estimated saleable area | 95% | 2,115 | Mixed tickets | ₹2,189.1125 crUnrounded computed total |
No fixed 1,400 / 1,500 sq ft 3 BHK, 2,000 sq ft 4 BHK or 3.5 BHK quantity is approved. Keep this area flexible until the exact product, buyer, price and release evidence passes review.
Each product allocation is rounded down to whole apartments. The 95% core budget is 23,75,000 sq ft; modeled core apartments use 23,74,330 sq ft. Together with flex, 1,25,670 sq ft remains uncommitted.
Whole units = floor(allocated saleable area ÷ per-apartment modeled saleable area). Revenue = whole units × RERA carpet × assumed RERA-carpet rate. Loading alone does not create revenue. These are net agreement values before statutory charges, parking/premia and unsupplied incentives; they are not profit or cash collections. Final plans, costs and current commercial quotations remain required.
At the same proposed opening rates, balanced adds ₹39.02 crore of modeled gross agreement value over full velocity while increasing premium / 4 BHK area from 5% to 15%. That uplift is before extra costs, timing and risk.
₹2,313.36 crassumed gross agreement value
55% 2 BHK · 40% core 3 BHK · 5% premium / 4 BHK
Includes 71 unapproved premium 3 BHK apartments. Separate from the recommended core-only brief.
₹2,352.39 crassumed gross agreement value
40% 2 BHK · 45% core 3 BHK · 15% premium / 4 BHK
₹2,413.19 crassumed gross agreement value
20% 2 BHK · 45% core 3 BHK · 35% premium / 4 BHK
The full velocity benchmark is not the recommended core-only portfolio. Its 2,186 apartments and ₹2,313.3625 crore include 71 assumed premium 3 BHK apartments worth ₹124.25 crore. Those apartments use 1,250 RERA carpet sq ft and zero assumed terrace; their quantity and revenue are unapproved. The recommended brief has 2,115 core apartments and leaves the flex area uncommitted.
All three engine benchmarks assume the same product-independent lead conversions and cancellation rates. Their base month-8 net booking count is identical at 488. Larger homes produce greater modeled area throughput arithmetically; this is not evidence that premium homes sell faster. The model has no verified product-specific absorption coefficient or probability of success.
It equals 40% of the confirmed development budget. Specify whether the deadline applies to net bookings or registrations; cancellations, legal conversion and two stage lags make them different targets.
Uses the modeled core average of 1,122.615 saleable sq ft. Actual apartment counts depend on the products that are released and sold.
Includes the unapproved premium option; average area is 1,142.992 modeled saleable sq ft. This is the mix used for the engine results below.
Unchanged assumed inputs: 3,500 monthly leads, 8% cancellations, 95% at each legal stage, one month per stage and a 1.25 release buffer. This is arithmetic capacity, not a forecast calibrated from market absorption.
The previous 9,000-lead stretch does not achieve 10 lakh registrations for this mix. With the buffer expanded to 1.35, it produces 13.50 lakh net-booked area but only 9.60 lakh registered area by month 8. A stretch preset must be recalculated when the mix changes.
For the full conditional velocity benchmark, the exact engine threshold is 6,352 leads each month to reach 10 lakh net-booked area by month 8 at the existing assumptions. It requires 9,372 monthly leads and a 1.35 release buffer to reach 10 lakh registered area. These are input requirements, not proof that buyers or conversions exist.
The original 1.25 release envelope cannot fit the registration target by month 8 even with more leads. With one month at each of two legal stages, only bookings through month 6 can register by month 8. A dated whole-apartment release plan must make adequate inventory available early enough.
Core-only thresholds must be recalculated against the final sanctioned release schedule and observed buyer funnel. No existing full-velocity engine result is presented as a core-only forecast.
Home equivalents use a portfolio-average area and are not an exact unit-wise sales schedule. Gross bookings, cancellations, net bookings, agreements, registrations and collections remain distinct. No registration count or investor saleable-area series is used to calibrate the conversion assumptions.
The phase-eligible 5 km source cohort contains 3,019 registration records across 34 projects, within 39 researched radius profiles. Only 2,361 records support the RERA rate and 426 support the modeled saleable rate. Source points are corroborated; legal project boundaries are not independently verified.
| Proposed product | Broad RERA band | Records | Narrow design band | Records |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compact 2 BHK | 550–<700 | 624 | 625–<675 | 296 |
| Regular 2 BHK | 700–<850 | 222 | 725–<775 | 162 |
| Compact 3 BHK | 800–<1000 | 183 | 875–<925 | 34 |
| Regular 3 BHK | 1000–<1150 | 141 | 1025–<1075 | 80 |
Bands are lower-inclusive and upper-exclusive. Broader counts do not validate the narrower design or exact proposed ticket. Related legal registrations and candidate identity collisions remain in the records; no verified unique-home demand total is asserted. Dated released inventory and cancellations are missing.
| Product / RERA band | Source labels | Conflict holdouts | Non-disputed P-coded | Decision limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1400 RERA 3 BHK1350–<1450 RERA sq ft | 3 | 3 | 0 | Three P-coded records are held out for unresolved configuration conflicts. |
| 1500 RERA 3 BHK1450–<1550 RERA sq ft | 4 | 0 | 0 | Four resale-coded legal records include related deed references; they are not four independent primary sales. |
| 2000 RERA 4 BHK1900–<2100 RERA sq ft | 0 | 0 | 0 | No matching record in the defined cohort. |
P is the source's primary-sale code; it is not independent confirmation of a fresh booking. Zero supported observations does not establish zero premium demand. The existing model’s 1,250 RERA sq ft premium 3 BHK and 1,450 RERA sq ft 4 BHK are different from the requested 1,400 / 1,500 / 2,000 sq ft products.
There are 14 P-coded 3.5 BHK registration records from Gera Island of Joy and Ganga Platinum. Every record lacks exclusive-terrace detail, so none supports a standardized planning/saleable conversion. No proposed size, allocation, fixed quantity or revenue is invented.
Strand’s original training brochure uses generic carpet labels without an approved component schedule. Its 1,566.7 sq ft 4 BHK figure numerically matches carpet + enclosed balcony + dry terrace in one registration description; that does not certify statutory area or apartment identity. The source also contains an internal duplex-area discrepancy.
Approved exact RERA/tower/unit schedule with statutory carpet, exclusive terrace and balcony separately; resolve 36985691, 35701432 and 35399516 configuration conflicts without changing raw fields.
Pass evidence: Exact identity and area schedule joins with recorded source/date, including architect-checked layout.Dated signed or attributable competitor and own-project price sheets for matching configuration, RERA area and delivery scope; separate net consideration, taxes, parking, premia and incentives.
Pass evidence: Equivalent denominator and comparable total ticket; actual saleable/loading only if documented.Dated launch and released-unit schedule plus booking and cancellation panel for the same phase/product; reconcile unique units and later legal instruments.
Pass evidence: Matched opening released stock, new releases, gross bookings, cancellations and closing unbooked units by month; unit identities retained and independently checked.Test the proposed 2/3/premium tickets through genuine qualified enquiries, site visits, finance eligibility and paid bookings, with cancellation reasons and dates.
Pass evidence: Observed own-product funnel replaces assumed conversion and cancellation parameters; report sampling uncertainty instead of assigning a guessed success percentage.Architect and legal review for 3.5 BHK or apartment combination: sanction, fire/egress, structural/services, ownership/registration and society rules.
Pass evidence: Written site-specific approval; do not infer combine-ready status from an adjacent plan or area sum.Choose whether 10 lakh means net bookings or registrations by the deadline, and approve the dated unit release, staffing, leads, CP/direct split and acquisition budget.
Pass evidence: Whole-unit month-by-month schedule meets the chosen stage target after legal lags and cancellations; later monthly observed CRM performance revalidates release pace.All 11,909 original source records are preserved. The provider’s 28 rows and five arithmetic warnings remain separate from phase-matched absorption. Current statutory unit schedules, available-stock lists, current authority status, occupancy and exact net bookings remain unresolved where the certificate states Unavailable or Conflicting.
The primary report lists Godrej River Greens – River Crest under Pune phase launches in FY2024–25 (PDF page 16, printed page 29). Its project reference schedule maps the exact name to P52100077127 (PDF page 272, printed page 540). This corroborates source identity and the financial-year launch window; exact launch day, released units, bookings, cancellations and current available stock remain unestablished.
Open original annual reportThe undated commercial source is marked for internal training and contains generic area labels. Its old offer values are not current advertised prices. Neither plan graphics nor a numerical area match establish approved statutory carpet or available apartments.
Inspect original training documentRegistration observations are not unique-home demand or cancellation-adjusted booking absorption. The five dated IvyLush investor-area snapshots retain their own commercial convention; they are not converted with this 40% reference. The changed March–June 2026 footprint prevents assigning a 50,000 sq ft movement to sales or inferring zero bookings.
This brief is a dated recommendation under incomplete verification. It does not update the simulator, approve a statutory area, verify current inventory or guarantee the 10 lakh target. Published figures use a static 40% loading assumption over RERA carpet plus explicit terrace, with zero terrace in the preliminary design. Final investment readiness remains Not ready.